Tag Archives: Congress

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2016 Projections


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The Changing Face of America’s Electorate Has Big Political Implications for 2016

One of several reasons Democrats did not have a successful 2014 was the predictably low turnout among some of the party’s key constituencies. But, as we wrote, 2016 is a whole different ballgame. Now a new Center for American Progress analysis takes a big step in quantifying just how different it could be — and how much of a headwind the GOP faces to retake the White House.

The study, by policy analyst Patrick Oakford, runs a number of simulations of the 2016 elections incorporating the projected racial and ethnic demographic changes in America. As voters of color make up an increasing share of the electorate, it becomes increasingly difficult for Republicans to win key swing states and in turn the Electoral College. In fact, the study finds that even if racial and ethnic groups vote in 2016 how they voted in 2004 when Bush won reelection, Republicans would still lose key states like Ohio.

Here is a brief overview of the simulations and their findings. Check out the full issue brief for more details.

Simulation #1: Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at 2012 levels and vote for Republicans and Democrats at 2012 levels.

This scenario means that nothing changes between the 2012 and 2016 elections except for demographic shifts. In this case, the only change is that Democrats would win North Carolina.

Simulation #2: Racial and ethnic groups turn out at 2012 levels, but vote at 2004 levels.

This scenario helps Republicans — four in ten Hispanic voters went for George W. Bush in 2004, while just 27 percent voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. It addresses the argument that voting patters among minority groups might change when Barack Obama is not on the ticket. But, with the demographic changes, Democrats still come out on top in the Electoral College. Ohio, which went for Bush in 2004, would turn blue again.

Simulations #3: Racial and ethnic groups turn out at 2012 levels. Whites vote at 2012 levels, while racial minorities vote at 2004 levels.

This final scenario attempts to stack the deck in favor of Republicans. That’s because they got a stronger white vote in 2012 than in 2004, but a stronger Hispanic vote in 2004 than in 2012. And yet, they come up short in this simulations as well.

BOTTOM LINE: New projections of the 2016 electorate show that Republicans can’t just hope for a return to pre-Obama voting patterns to win the presidency. They need to do even better. But instead of trying to actually represent the changing electorate by tackling the important challenges that matter to these groups, like passing immigration reform, House Republicans are gearing up to defund the president’s recent common-sense executive actions on immigration, rolling back important protections and splitting families and communities in the process.

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Transcendence (Orchestral)- Lindsey Stirling


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Strengthening Our Children’s Futures


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Principles To Guide The Reauthorization Of Federal Education Policy

In 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) into law to ensure all kids, no matter their family’s income level, zip code, or background, receive an education that gives them an opportunity for success. Since then the legislation has gone through changes, but at its core it maintained a federal role in education that focuses on promoting equity and ensuring that disadvantaged students receive the resources needed for a quality education.

The latest version of the ESEA, more commonly known as No Child Left Behind, has been long overdue for reauthorization, and it looks like this year Congress may actually take action. There is no question that NCLB is outdated and broken, but it must be changed in a way that puts students first. In that light, the Center for American Progress has joined with the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) to highlight key principles that should be included in the new version of the law.

Far from outlining a complete set of recommendations for the reauthorization of this critical legislation, these share principles are rather a statement of what good education policy should be in some of the core — and controversial — areas of debate. They are intended to encourage Congress to work together on a bipartisan basis to improve the legislation. And the hope is that, with these shared principles in mind, new federal policy will ensure that all students — and especially those who have traditionally been the most disadvantaged — are prepared to compete in a global economy.

Below is a summary of the shared principles that CAP and AFT have released, and click here to check out the full statement.

  • Address funding inequities to improve teaching and learning;
  • Give parents and communities useful information about whether students are working at grade level or are struggling, and allow teachers to diagnose and help their students. This means maintaining the federal requirement for annual statewide testing in grades 3 through 8 and once in high school;
  • Disaggregate assessment results by subgroups, including race and income level, and use these assessment results to identify where learning gaps exist;
  • Provide a system of multiple measures for accountability and relieve some of the unintended pressure of tests on students;
  • Design accountability systems intended to identify and target interventions for schools with large achievement gaps or large numbers of low-performing disadvantaged kids;
  • Raise the bar for entry to and through the teacher pipeline including at least doubling the investments for states and districts to elevate the teaching profession and support educators.

BOTTOM LINE: The goal of federal education policy should be to prepare future generations for success and ensure that disadvantaged students have access to the resources they need. With the reauthorization of No Child Left Behind under consideration, now is a critical time to make necessary changes to strengthen our education system. These shared principles should serve as a guide to doing so — our children deserve no less.

~ my 2cents ...

Ferguson bias


just another rant …

beaseedforchangestickersGREEN

Ferguson is back in the news and most of the media whether from the states or overseas describes Ferguson as an “embattled city” has also had some positive changes happen since that DOJ report.

This report not only informed America that a small town has been under control, it has been used as a revenue source and subject to search seizures stops while driving ,shopping, walking for just being black. Ferguson is 67% black 85% cited and those residents make up 93% of all arrests. However, their police department is about 96% white and if you listen to the Mayor or police officials their excuses are that far and few Blacks apply, or are not qualified to be on the force.  The DOJ report in my opinion validated what residents were saying after Mike Brown was killed, some say has been going on for years possibly decades lest we include comments about other “Ferguson’s” all over our country is obviously disturbing. It is now our 21st Century reality that comes from fear, politicians who get votes from fear mongering and a learned behavior culture that should be followed and reformed as the DOJ report suggests even if this scathing report comes from outside authorities. Yet, after watching the press conference, the viewer gets the idea that the information from that DOJ report is devastating, brutal and based on fact though Ferguson officials appear to be acing like they are going to stall or shove immediate changes to the back burner. We all saw Mayor Knowles reaction and it may have been a natural response by folks in leadership or those in positions of power, but the longer they wait to implement change the tougher it will be to hold his title even if folks have been leaving or supposedly fired. This finding by the DOJ was validating and clearly just the beginning as real change will take elections that replace the problem and get those into office that will have the courage to diversify Ferguson. They need leaders that create solutions, take responsibility and  not run or hide from it.  Finding out that some of these people in leadership positions will be paid for a year is offensive. I object to paying people who clearly ignored, avoided, closed their eyes or participated quietly if those emails were sent out in-house only with racial slurs or bias is on the backs of those leaders in the police department.

Anyway, I was checking my email looking at blogs when a blogger exercising their 1st amendment rights seemed to have sparked a response from me and as stated on their blog ~~ feel free to respond and that response is below …

This is just my opinion and quite possibly it has some ill feelings attached, but maybe you should re-read your entry because you constantly state that you only know what is being reported yet you write.

“In my mind’s eye I can almost envision some backward baseball cap vigilante thinking to himself/herself that he or she was taking the appropriate action required to “Take Murica Back.”

I hope folks know that what gets reported can be subjective and while there are several reports from Wednesday are that the shots came from across the street, which they say were almost a block down, behind and away from where the peaceful protestors were. It was also reported that police drew guns within seconds on what seemingly were peaceful protestors even while there was “agitation” prior to the shooting and quite possibly “outside agitators.”  We all need to be reminded that this is also something that has not occurred since August, which could very well mean someone from the outside was at it again and or it could have been a resident. I want to make sure you know believe me anyone who shoots at civilians and or police for no reason are guilty, but you have decided to tell your readers what that looks like and that is just wrong. Why, because we do not know if the shooter/vigilante had a backward baseball cap yet. Unfortunately, this seems to be code for “black male” and if that assumption is wrong, I would definitely stand corrected.  I was taught to know, that not all white folks are bad, racists , wear White Hoods, feel like overseers, slave owners or as if what’s needed is to put absolute control over a community that is over 67% Black 85%cited and 93%arrested fined and has been the police/town revenue …fundraiser since who knows how long

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Anthony Carbajal via Change.org


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