A Whiter Shade of Fail


By CAP Action War Room

The House GOP’s Epic Miscalculation

“A whiter shade of fail,” is how Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman described the latest efforts to deny the numerical and political reality that the GOP is in “a demographic death spiral,” as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) put it, unless the party gets behind comprehensive immigration reform in order to help get right by Asian and Latino voters.

It’s clear that some House Republicans are looking for an excuse, any excuse really, to get out of passing immigration reform with a pathway to earned citizenship. Some say they don’t have many Latinos in their gerrymandered conservative districts, so there’s no personal political benefit to them but there is potential political risk in the form of a primary from the right. Others, however, have seized on a recent analysis that purported to show that the GOP doesn’t actually need to improve its standing among minority voters if it simply manages to magically find and turn out “missing white voters.” And voila, there’s an excuse for the GOP to continue the status quo of alienating nearly every demographic segment outside of its increasingly old, increasingly white base.

Unfortunately for the GOP, this analysis was all wrong. In a post entitled, “No, Republicans, ‘Missing’ White Voters Won’t Save You,” Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira run through the numbers explaining just how wrong this “missing white voter” theory is. You should read the whole thing, but here’s their conclusion:

So: GOP phone home! Your missing white voters have been found, and it turns out they weren’t really missing. They were simply sitting out a relatively low turnout election along with a large number of their minority counterparts. They may be back next time if it’s a higher turnout election — but then again so will a lot of minority voters. Bottom line: your demographic dilemma remains the same. The mix of voters is changing fast to your disadvantage and there is no cavalry of white voters waiting in the wings to rescue you.

The New Republic’s Nate Cohn offers additional analysis underscoring that there is no easy way out of the GOP’s demographic dilemma. Indeed, he writes that since the GOP’s gains among white voters have been concentrated in the South and Appalachia, not battleground states, current trends among white voters actually “would cement the Democratic edge in the Electoral College.” Cohn concludes, “the GOP has a tough road ahead.”

Finally, a new round of polls out today shows that voters want immigration to be addressed this year and that several House Republicans in swing districts could face a serious voter backlash if immigration reform fails.

BOTTOM LINE: There’s no easy way out for the GOP. If House Republicans decide to kill immigration reform with a pathway to earned citizenship, their chances of staying a national party with the possibility of winning the White House are likely to die along with it.

Evening Brief: Important Stories That You Might’ve Missed

No governing, only sabotage.

The GOP’s number on obstruction is about to be up.

Georgia is set to ignore the Constitution and execute an intellectually disabled man anyway.

State troopers forcibly remove Texas woman during epic testimony on anti-abortion bill.

Over 60 abortion rights activists arrested yesterday during North Carolina’s Moral Monday protest.

Company advertises bleeding shoot-a-gun-control-lobbyist target with photo of an actual gun massacre victim.

GOP governor: Pregnant women and breast cancer patients are free health care moochers.

Hedge funder writes op-ed accusing homeless shelter volunteers of being the real cause of homelessness.

The sequester is still hurting families and children across the country.

Going Nuclear


CAP Action War Room

Standing Up to Unprecedented GOP Obstructionism

Republican leaders from the House and Senate got together and plotted on the very night President Obama was first inaugurated and agreed that there would be no cooperation, no compromise, no nothing but unceasing obstruction. And that’s exactly what we’ve seen ever since, whether it’s on legislation, judicial nominations, or other executive branch nominations.

After more than four years of unprecedented obstruction, Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has said enough is enough. He’s previously made two agreements with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to try and get the Senate moving without formally changing the rules, but both times Sen. McConnell failed to keep up his end of the bargain and the Senate remained gridlocked. Some nominees have literally been stalled for years at a time.

Today, Sen. Reid filed cloture on seven Obama nominees, many of whom are to serve in positions that protect workers, consumers, and our clean air and water. If the Republicans still insist on blocking these nominations come Tuesday, Democrats are poised to use the so-called “nuclear option” to eliminate the filibuster on executive branch nominations.

Filibusters would still be allowed on legislation and judicial nominations, but Senate Republicans would no longer be able to paralyze the government by denying the president the ability to fill key vacancies.

This is an important first step toward making the Senate function as our Founding Fathers envisioned it when they specified in the Constitution that only simple majorities were needed to approve both legislation and nominations.

The practical consequences of this decision are huge. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cannot issue rules in certain areas and do many key tasks unless it has a director. It will be difficult for the president to advance his agenda to combat climate change unless Gina McCarthy is confirmed to head the Environmental Protection Agency. Unless new members are confirmed to the National Labor Relations Board, it will literally cease to function soon — something that will hurt both workers and employers alike.

BOTTOM LINE: Republicans have engaged in years of unprecedented obstructionism and they have only themselves to blame if Democrats are forced to use the “nuclear option” to simply make the Senate function more like the Constitution says it should. Interestingly, many of the Republican Senators decrying this potential rules reform today argued vehemently in favor of it just eight short years ago.

Evening Brief: Important Stories That You Might’ve Missed

Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate says health insurance should not cover check-ups or physicals.

House Republicans pass cruel Farm Bill that dropped all funding for food stamps.

Colorado counties want to secede and form a new petro-state with lax environmental rules.

No, the Department of Justice did not organize Trayvon Martin rallies.

As Alabama cuts benefits, desperate man “robs” bank in order to get food, shelter.

Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky.

Brazilian Attorney General challenges constitutionality of World Cup tax exemption.

What do motorcycles and abortion have in common?

Texas women will be forced to turn to “flea market abortions.”

the Senate considers S.1238,Student loans ~~ Congress ~~ the House considers HR2609,Energy&Water


capitolphonelines

The Senate stands in adjournment until 10:00am on Wednesday, July 10, 2013.

  • Following the prayer and pledge, the Majority Leader will be recognized.  It is expected he will renew the motion to proceed to S.1238, the Keep Student Loans Affordable Act of 2013. The time until 12:00pm will be equally divided and controlled between the two Leaders or their designees with Senators permitted to speak therein for up to 10 minutes each.
  • At 12:00pm, there will be a roll call vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to S.1238, the Keep Student Loans Affordable Act of 2013.

Senator Burr asked unanimous consent that if cloture is not invoked on the pending motion to proceed to S.1238, Keep Student Loans Affordable Act of 2013 (Reed), that it then be in order to move to proceed to S.1241, Bipartisan Student Loan Certainty Act (Manchin); further that the cloture motion which will be at the desk be considered filed on the motion to proceed and further, notwithstanding Rule XXII, the Senate then immediately proceed to vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the pending motion to proceed to the Manchin bill, S.1241. If the request would have been agreed to it would have resulted in 2 cloture votes on motions to proceed to the two versions of student loan rates at noon today.

Senator Harkin objected.

the motion to proceed to S.1238, Keep Student Loans Affordable Act of 2013;

Not Invoked: 51-49

Cloture on the motion to proceed to S.1238, Keep Student Loans Affordable Act, failed 51-49. Senator Reid changed his vote to no and then entered a motion to reconsider in order to preserve his ability to reconsider the failed vote at a later time.

The motion to proceed to S.1238, Keep Student Loans Affordable, remains the pending business.

WRAP UP

ROLL CALL VOTE

1)      Motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to S.1238, the Keep Student Loans Affordable Act of 2013; Not Invoked: 51-49

LEGISLATIVE ITEMS

Concurred in the House amendment to the Senate amendment to H.R.588, the Vietnam Veterans Donor Acknowledgement Act of 2013.

Passed H.R.251, to direct the Secretary of the Interior to convey certain Federal features of the electric distribution system to the South Utah Valley Electric Service District, and for other purposes.

Passed H.R.254, Bonneville Unit Clean Hydropower Facilitation Act.

Adopted S.Res.193, honoring the fallen heroes of the Granite Mountain Interagency Hotshot Crew.

No EXECUTIVE ITEMS

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July 2013
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Last Floor Action:
12:03:58 A.M. – The House adjourned. The
next meeting is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. on July 10, 2013.

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