The Other 47 Percent


By

A Closer Look At Tuesday’s Races Show Structural, But Also Strategic, Challenges

There’s no denying that Tuesday was a bad day for Democrats. On the morning after the election, we detailed a number of key issues at play in the race and a silver lining. Now, a closer analysis reveals that while structural obstacles were certainly a big reason for GOP gains, they were not the only reason. Public opinion and demography experts Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin explain in a new Center for American Progress issue brief that deep voter pessimism and a lack of an economic agenda from Democrats also contributed to the voting outcomes. This provides an important lesson in the path forward.

The Structural Challenge: Democrats were hurt by the fact that states holding Senate elections this year were disproportionately small and conservative. With over two-thirds of the states having elections in 2014, one might expect that about two-thirds of the voting eligible population voted in the races that determined control of the Senate. But these 34 states had just 53 percent of the total United States voting population. That’s right: 47 percent of the country does not live in the states that just determined the new Senate majority.

The political make-up of the voters in 2014 Senate states leaned Republican as well, as this graphic spells out:

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The Strategic Challenge: But these structural challenges don’t explain everything. Comparing the 2014 Senate state with the same states in 2012, Democrats did do worse this year. Mitt Romney’s margin of victory in these states was 2.4 percent in 2012. This year, the margin of victory for all Republican Senate candidates in 2014 was 4.3 percent. That is a 1.9 percent shift more Republican. And in governor’s races, which actually took place in states that leaned blue, Democrats did even worse: in 2012 Obama won these states by a margin of 3.9 percent, while Democratic candidates lost in those states this year by 5.5 percent. That’s 9.4 percent of voters — equivalent to 7 million votes — going toward the GOP.

In their new analysis, Teixeira and Halpin offer a critical evaluation and explanation of why this could be. After going through the exit polls and breaking down how different key constituencies voted, they conclude that “the path forward for Democrats seems straight.”

In order to maximize support among core constituencies and reach further into the Republican hold on white voters, they must develop and promote a sharp vision of economic equality and greater opportunity for those left out of the recovery. An agenda of job creation and investment; higher wages for workers; greater equality for women; college affordability and student-debt reduction; and strong family policies through paid leave, expanded child care support, and universal pre-K can attract a sizable chunk of the white working class, particularly among women and Millennials, and appeal to base voters who are economically pressed.

BOTTOM LINE: Structural challenges made this year a difficult one for Democrats. But strategic challenges connecting with voters anxious about their economic circumstances also offer lessons and provide a path forward going into 2016. Economic opportunity for all Americans, not just the wealthy few, is a message that resonates with voters. Now candidates and elected officials need to advocate for the progressive policies to make that a reality.

 

GOOD NEWS (thank goodness!)


Tuesday was a tough night. But today, we have some good news to share:

There were 14 races too-close-to-call on Election Night:

But as of 1pm today:
Democrats have won 7
Republicans have won 0

It’s another reminder of how your record-breaking grassroots support made the difference.

In the ten closest races, your donations and volunteer hours allowed us to reach out to key voters over 641,000 times.

641,000 Door Knocks and Phone Calls


And the margin in those 10 races — combined?

14,635 votes

Your grassroots support literally made the difference between victory and defeat in these races. We can’t say thank you enough for all you’ve done.

Now, we just need to make sure every single vote is counted fairly and accurately in our final 7 too-close-to-call races.

Take action today to call out corporate “greenwash​ing”!


 –French-Belgian energy giant GDF Suez issued a “Green Bond” and raised more than $3 billion from ethical investors based on the highly dubious “green” and “sustainable” credentials of the company’s catastrophic Jirau mega-dam in the Brazilian Amazon.In reality, GDF Suez is actively developing climate-busting coal-fired power plants from Europe to South Africa, completely undermining its purported “ambitious strategy in renewable energies”.Take a moment today to vote for GDF Suez on this year’s Pinocchio Prize!

GDF Suez invests far more in greenwashing its image than it does on actually cleaning up its business practices. Such abusive propaganda has earned the company a tidy profit; let’s make it also earn them a black eye!

Vote for GDF Suez to win the Pinocchio Prize and send a message to corporate greenwashers around the planet that we will not tolerate false climate solutions!

For our climate,

Christian Poirier
Christian Poirier
Brazil-Europe Advocacy DirectorAmazon Watch

Here’s what’s next : President Barack Obama


The White House, Washington

 

Yesterday, millions of Americans cast their ballots. Republicans had a good night, and I congratulate all the candidates who won.

But what stands out to me is that the message Americans sent yesterday is one you’ve sent for several elections in a row now. You expect the people you elect to work as hard as you do. You expect us to focus on your ambitions — not ours — and you want us to get the job done. Period.

I plan on spending every moment of the next two years rolling up my sleeves and working as hard as I can for the American people. This country has made real and undeniable progress in the six years since the 2008 economic crisis. But our work will not be done until every single American feels the gains of a growing economy where it matters most: in your own lives.

While I’m sure we’ll continue to disagree on some issues that we’re passionate about, I’m eager to work with Congress over the next two years to get the job done. The challenges that lay ahead of us are far too important to allow partisanship or ideology to prevent our progress as a nation.

As we make progress, I’ll need your help, too. Over the weeks and months ahead, I’ll be looking to Americans like you, asking you to stay engaged.

I am optimistic about our future. Because for all the maps plastered across our screens today, for all the cynics who say otherwise, we are more than a simple collection of red and blue states. We are the United States.

And yesterday, millions of Americans — Democrats and Republicans, women and men, young and old, black and white — took the time out of their day to perform a simple, profound act of citizenship. That’s something we shouldn’t forget amid the din of political commentary. Because making progress starts with showing up.

Let’s get to work.

President Barack Obama

We cannot repeat the BP disaster


Since the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, BP and federal agencies have claimed that much of the oil spilled in the Gulf of Mexico simply “disappeared.” But recently, researchers discovered a massive, oily “bathtub ring” the size of Rhode Island on the Gulf’s deep ocean floor.

It’s now clear that the federal oil spill response was poorly planned, haphazard, and largely ineffective. This discovery highlights the alarming fact that the EPA still has not issued stronger protections to make sure that oil spill response techniques—such as the use of potentially toxic chemical dispersants despite lack of knowledge about their health and safety effects—are safer and more effective.

We have a chance to make sure this outrageous failure isn’t repeated. While the EPA has proposed stronger protections for chemical dispersants, it is still waiting for the Office of Management and Budget to move forward.

Let’s end the wait and ensure that companies like BP can’t just dump secret, toxic chemicals on oil spill disasters and call it a day.

Earthjustice has been fighting in court since the BP disaster to force the EPA to fulfill requirements mandated by the Clean Water Act for chemical dispersants. But we need widespread public urgency to move these protections forward.

Tell the Office of Management and Budget and the EPA to propose new safeguards for toxic dispersants now.

Toxic dispersants were used in response to the Gulf oil disaster without prior understanding of their effects on the marine ecosystems and human health. And Earthjustice had to sue to ensure that information about the dispersants—including their chemical ingredients—wasn’t kept secret.

EPA’s failure to have adequate dispersant protections in place was one of the many causes of the confusion, concern, and uncertainty surrounding the response to the BP disaster in 2010.

As the federal government and BP waffled on dispersant use in the middle of the crisis, it became apparent how little testing and study had been done beforehand. Even then, former EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson readily acknowledged the agency’s lack of knowledge about dispersants. The result was a poorly planned, haphazard response, the effects of which—such as the recently discovered oil ring the size of Rhode Island—will be felt for years to come.

Please take action today to ensure stronger safeguards from toxic chemical dispersants like the ones used in the BP oil spill.

Take Action Now: http://action.earthjustice.org/oil-dispersants 

Sincerely,

Marianne Engelman Lado
Managing Attorney

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